Commodity trading logistics face major disruptions from geopolitical conflicts and climate events. Over a year into the war in Ukraine, global grain routes remain in flux, while conflict in the Middle East has severely impacted Red Sea shipping. Attacks on vessels around Yemen led many ships to avoid the Red Sea route, rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope—a detour adding ~10 days of transit and roughly 40% higher fuel costs.

Key trade arteries like the Suez and Panama Canal have seen traffic plunge due to these crises. In the Panama Canal, drought conditions have forced ship traffic limits, causing grain carriers from the U.S. Gulf to take longer alternate paths. Wait times at the canal have reached up to three weeks. These issues drive up freight rates and delay deliveries worldwide. Industry reports indicate that end-to-end supply chain costs have spiked, and lead times have stretched as shippers grapple with port labor strikes, infrastructure failures, and an unstable global trade environment.